Losing best new artist at the Grammys has quietly become one of the strongest predictors of a huge career. When nominations for the 69th annual awards are announced Nov. 16, as many as six artists who lost best new artist could be in the album of the year conversation: Taylor Swift, Rosalía, Noah Kahan, Phoebe Bridgers, Kacey Musgraves and RAYE. Swift alone has seven prior album of the year nominations and four wins, which puts that early best new artist loss firmly in the rearview.

 

The pattern keeps repeating because the academy keeps honoring artists who grow. At the 68th Grammys, Justin Bieber, Kendrick Lamar and Sabrina Carpenter were all album of the year nominees after losing best new artist earlier in their careers. Seven artists in Grammy history have gone on to win album of the year after losing best new artist, including Swift, Eric Clapton, Robert Plant, Toto, The Chicks, Mumford & Sons and Musgraves.

Nominations land Nov. 16 and the ceremony is set for Feb. 7, so there is plenty of time to build your predictions. The takeaway is simple: a best new artist loss is not a rejection, it is a head start on the comeback. Which of these six artists are you rooting for in album of the year?